How Hydrogen could modify the geopolitics of energy ion the coming years.
A new study issued by IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) called Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation: The Hydrogen factor, says that green hydrogen could disrupt global trade and bilateral energy relations, reshaping the positioning of states with new hydrogen exporters and users emerging.
Hydrogen is seen as the energy vector able to decarbonize the most consuming energy sectors of the economy. The rapid a growth of an hydrogen economy and the coming decline of the traditional oil and gas trade will modify deeply the trade routes and the relationships between the demand and offer countries.
IRENA estimates hydrogen to cover up to 12 per cent of global energy use by 2050. “Hydrogen is clearly riding on the renewable energy revolution with green hydrogen emerging as a game changer for achieving climate neutrality without compromising industrial growth and social development. But hydrogen is not a new oil. And the transition is not a fuel replacement but a shift to a new system with political, technical, environmental, and economic disruptions.” Says Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA.
“It is green hydrogen that will bring new and diverse participants to the market, diversify routes and supplies and shift power from the few to the many. With international co-operation, the hydrogen market could be more democratic and inclusive, offering opportunities for developed and developing countries alike.”
IRENA estimates that over 30 per cent of hydrogen could be traded across borders by 2050, a higher share than natural gas today. Fossil fuel exporters increasingly consider clean hydrogen an attractive way to diversify their economies for example Australia, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Countries most able to generate cheap renewable electricity will be best placed to produce competitive green hydrogen. While countries such as Chile, Morocco, and Namibia are net energy importers today, they are set to emerge as green hydrogen exporters.
Realising the potential of regions like Africa, the Americas, the Middle East, and Oceania could limit the risk of export concentration, but many countries will need technology transfers, infrastructure and investment at scale.